Bill Dudley's list of 2012 Mobile Predictions seemed as good a place
as any to hash out some of these ideas. I picked out several of his
predictions to pass along and comment upon, but not all of them.
Dudley is group director of product management at Sybase 365, so he
has a vested interest in seeing smartphones, tablets and mobile apps
grow, but he also speaks from spending 25 years in building and managing
telecom networks. He's from Texas, which helps him speak his mind.
His
predictions are his, not Sybase's. His record is good, going from 73% to
80% accurate for his past three forecasts in 2008-2010.
AT&T/T-Mobile
Bill: "After significant industry and political wrangling, AT&Ts bid for T-Mobile will not go forward."
Matt: No kidding, Sherlock. The real long-term
questions are how AT&T is going to get more spectrum if not from
T-Mobile and how it can match what Verizon did in bidding for cable
operator spectrum.
Mobile Payments in iPhone and More Android Phones
Bill: "The new Apple iPhone (iPhone 5) will support
mobile purchases and NFC technology, creating a catalyst for
jump-starting NFC-triggered point of sale purchases in developed
markets." He continues: "2012 will be a significant year for point of
sale mobile payments," adding that Google/Android will "accelerate
mobile payment and purchase capabilities to more devices."
Matt: Yes, NFC in the iPhone has been rumored for a
long time, and if it arrives in an iPhone 5 in June, it will give Google
and Google Wallet as well as the carriers in the Isis consortium real
headaches. Bill's right when he says that Apple already has the App
Store used by millions to back its coming mobile payments, so the big
question is how Apple will use either hardware or software to make it
easy for merchants to work with iPhones and the App Store.
Whatever happens in 2012, as Bill says, "We're not going to be paying
for everything with a phone any time soon. It's going to take years and
years to displace current payment technology."
Research in Motion
Bill: "Don't count out Research in Motion yet." He
adds that RIM will launch several LTE-ready devices and continue to do
well in many markets outside of the U.S.
Matt: Bill's right; the U.S.-based media often
forgets that there are actually other markets that matter outside of
North America. Consumers in Europe and the Middle East enjoy BlackBerry
Messenger as much as some enterprises enjoy BlackBerry Enterprise Server
security around the globe. But he made his prediction before RIM lost
out on using BBX for its operating system name in a trademark dispute
and will have to use Blackberry 10 instead. It's a tiny thing in a
functional sense, but RIM keeps making symbolic slips that can hurt
overall.
Windows Phone 7
Bill:
"Windows Phone 7 will begin to make a resurgence in the second part of
2012, partially helped by Nokia devices as well as well as [Microsoft's]
Skype acquisition."
Matt: How was it Dan Aykroyd put it to Jane Curtin
on Saturday Night Live years ago? Bill, you ignorant...! Bill says
Windows Mobile 7 "ain't bad if you've played with it" on a device and
I'd have to agree. But Bill is talking about WP7 and WP7.5 Mango moving
into fourth place above Samsung's Bada by year's end. Is Microsoft
really happy with fourth place? Maybe so, since that means many millions
of phones sold. Still, Windows Phone is far behind the success of
Android and iPhone and one wonders whether the mighty Microsoft will
hang in there for years to come in fourth place or worse. Resurgence?
Yes, for now, but for how long?
Amazon Phone
Bill: "Amazon will not launch a mobile phone in 2012."
Matt: Totally. (I take back what i said about your
being ignorant.) I like how Bill put it in an interview: "Amazon
shouldn't have a mobile phone. They are already a great channel for
Android, so don't screw that up. They are a content company is what
they'll realize. Their DNA is selling books, so a tablet is natural
progression of that." I'd add that Amazon would just be entering a
hugely crowded market with a phone. if the Kindle Fire really catches
fire at the end of 2012, then it might be the time to consider launching
a phone.
Mobile in U.S. Presidential Elections
Bill: "The top U.S. presidential election candidates
will all use mobile engagement to their base and the general electorate
as a major means of trying to win votes."
Matt: Given how much online campaigns and texting to
mobile devices mattered in the 2008 presidential race, Bill's
prediction for 2012 seems pretty obvious. But what he's saying that's
different this time is how powerful mobile will be to candidates, with
the proliferation of smartphones and tablets in the past four years,
especially among younger voters.
"2012 is going to be the year that if a campaign doesn't do anything
with mobile, they're dead," Bill said. "These campaigns need to use the
mobile channel as much as possible." He's also warning the candidates
not to focus on those mindless robo calls and instead find novel ways to
engage mobile users, including with spot polling through mobile apps or
SMS.
In summary, Bill believes 2012 won't be "hugely
disruptive in mobile, but I do see important evolution." Ditto from moi,
except I'd add that 2012 will be hugely disruptive for AT&T if they
indeed lose out on T-Mobile.
By Matt Hamblen, Computerworld
By Matt Hamblen, Computerworld
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